Trading, Energy, and Evidence-Based Philanthropy

Why natural gas markets were easier to master than human nature

John Arnold built his fortune in energy trading by surrounding himself with smart people, maintaining emotional detachment, sensing market imbalances through first-principles analysis, and focusing with laser intensity on a single niche until he dominated it completely. Now he’s applying that same analytical rigor to philanthropy, where he’s discovered that changing human behavior for the long term proves far more challenging than predicting natural gas prices, and that the academic research meant to guide social policy is often riddled with perverse incentives and poor methodology.